Sunday, 25 May 2008
Luck vs Skill
Following the recent success path i am on, few questions have been raised on the topic by my friends, Naturally they are puzzled by the exponential growth of the roll, and have asked me to come up with a logical explanation of how this sick heater could be anything but pure hard luck!
I haven't played enough days to complete a nice sample of data for statistical analysis, nor do i use Poker Tracker to gather that sort of info. ( although i am seriously thinking about it.)
So is it intuitive? lucky or else.. I have mentioned at the beginning of the blog that i would set up objectives on how i plan to grow my roll. Unfortunately i have never got down to document it as such, but rest assured i had the basics of what i wanted to do subconsciously. I say subconsciously because i have been playing this game for a long time without the BRM. I have read tons of books. articles and various blogs. I have tried to prove the odds of starting hand success vs each other along with other experiments to make me believe that this is nothing other than statistical game. And thats what poker is.
For long time I have played under rolled and it meant that my chips would eventually vanish in to air due to hitting negative side of swings and never be able to recover.
Things are a little different now. I am comfortably cushioned for about 50+ buyins at $2/5 around 120+ buyins at $1/2 and over rolled for lower levels . And the comfort zone means i can play with piece of mind which is very important and lets me concentrate purely on the game rather tan having to think about the financial side of things until cash out.
So was i lucky so far ? Yes i was lucky to hit a sick heater to reach the point i am at in such a short period. But i believe the skill part of my game now has been re-inforced by the stack ive accumulated and it means correct decisions will pay in the long run regardless of swings. (provided i don't go over budget and take shots at levels where i have few buy-ins)
My game is on the edge with 20 buyins at any level, and as that number increases i believe my style gets comfortable and results become visible. I don't multitable. I play maximum of 2 HU tables, and i fully concentrate on the game. I play for stacks rather than BB/100.
The game is a luck game in the short run but as the number of games increases the luck factor decreases and the results are reflected on the bankroll.
Yesterdays profit: 848 pounds,
The roll now stands at 14,597 pounds
The lucky streak continues....
Gl at the tables.